1. Jacksonville Jaguars: Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson
He already has the Jaguars playbook. He’s the pick.
2. New York Jets: Zach Wilson, QB, BYU
The Jets could have been blowing smoke all along and I think there’s still a chance they could surprise with Fields or Lance, but it sounds like they’re zeroed in on Wilson.
3. San Francisco 49ers: Trey Lance, QB, North Dakota State
Rumor has it the 49ers have narrowed their choices to North Dakota State’s Trey Lance and Alabama’s Mac Jones. I can’t wrap my head around trading two future first-round picks and a third-rounder to move up for McCorkle — perhaps only a marginal upgrade over Jimmy Garoppolo — so I’m going with Lance.
4. Atlanta Falcons: Kyle Pitts, TE, Florida
The Falcons could draft a quarterback of the future here but they still have a lot of money invested in Matt Ryan through 2023, he’s still playing at a fairly high level and it would be difficult to upgrade the roster around a young quarterback with the dead cap cutting or trading Ryan would incur. Pitts is a “BPA” pick that can help the Falcons win now, and he’ll provide a go-to option for the quarterback of the future.
5. Cincinnati Bengals: Ja’Marr Chase, WR, LSU
The Bengals run a lot of three-wide sets and could use another outside receiver to pair with Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd. More specifically, they need a deep threat and a legitimate No. 1 option. Chase is one of the few receivers in this draft class that checks all of those boxes. His instant chemistry with quarterback Joe Burrow is also a big plus. Oregon offensive tackle Penei Sewell is another a strong possibility here, but the offensive tackle class should provide a starting caliber player early in Round 2.
6. Miami Dolphins: Jaylen Waddle, WR, Alabama
I think the Dolphins will take Kyle Pitts or Ja’Marr Chase if one of them is available, but if the board shakes out like this and they stay put, I’m betting the pick is Waddle. Sewell could also be a possibility, but the Dolphins just spent their first-, second- and fourth-round picks on offensive tackles and a guard last year. With another first-round pick and a high second-round pick, they can afford to draft an offensive tackle later. Getting a go-to option for quarterback Tua Tagovailoa seems like the right move at No. 6.
7. Detroit Lions: Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State
The Lions might be content with Jared Goff at quarterback, but they shouldn’t be. There’s no reason they shouldn’t draft Fields if he makes it this far, but some general managers are bad at their jobs. From what I’ve heard, the Lions aren’t set on drafting a quarterback. If that’s the case, they might auction this pick off to a team that wants Fields like the Patriots or possibly the Broncos.
8. Carolina Panthers: Rashawn Slater, OT, Northwestern
The Panthers need a replacement for Russell Okung at left tackle. From what I’ve heard, they prefer Slater to Sewell.
9. Denver Broncos: Penei Sewell, OT, Oregon
The Broncos could take a quarterback, but I’m not sure they will unless Justin Fields or Trey Lance drops. In this scenario, they go BPA and find an upgrade at right tackle.
10. Dallas Cowboys: Patrick Surtain II, CB, Alabama
The Cowboys need an upgrade across from Trevon Diggs. I prefer Jaycee Horn, but Diggs’ former college teammate is expected to be the first cornerback off the board.
11. New York Giants: Kwity Paye, EDGE, Michigan
Dave Gettleman is a wild card. He picked a running back No. 2 overall in 2018 and a nose tackle No. 17 overall in 2019. I think DeVonta Smith would be a home-run pick if available here, but Gettleman’s archaic team-building philosophies steer me away from that projection. The Giants don’t really have any legit edge rushers, so Paye makes sense from a need standpoint.
12. Philadelphia Eagles: Jaycee Horn, CB, South Carolina
I could see the Eagles taking DeVonta Smith or Jaylen Waddle if one of them drops, but they just took a first-round receiver last year and could really use another corner to pair with Darius Slay. Horn would be a massive upgrade over Avonte Maddox.
13. Los Angeles Chargers: Christian Darrisaw, OT, Virginia Tech
From what I’ve heard, the Chargers really want to finish their offensive line rebuild with a legit left tackle. There’s a chance Slater could slide here. They could also consider trading up for Sewell. If they stay put and Slater and Sewell are gone, I’d guess Darrisaw is the pick.
14. Minnesota Vikings: Alijah Vera-Tucker, iOL, USC
The Vikings really need a left tackle, so they could look at Christian Darrisaw or Rashawn Slater if one of them drops. If neither does, they could draft Vera-Tucker, plug him in at right guard and move Ezra Cleveland to left tackle.
15. New England Patriots: Mac Jones, QB, Alabama
The Patriots have Cam Newton, but he’s more of a stop-gap at quarterback than long-term solution. Mac Jones could provide a chance at long-term stability.
16. Arizona Cardinals: DeVonta Smith, WR, Alabama
General managers will probably overthink Smith because he weighs 166 lbs. and some team will end up getting a steal as a result. That team could be the Arizona Cardinals. While they don’t really need a receiver, can you imagine Kyler Murray throwing to DeAndre Hopkins AND DeVonta Smith?
17. Las Vegas Raiders: Micah Parsons, LB, Penn State
Jon Gruden runs the show in Las Vegas and he’s always been a talent-over-character guy. I could see him being enamored with Parsons, who would fit nicely with Cory Littleton and Nick Kwiatkowski.
18. Miami Dolphins: Zaven Collins, LB, Tulsa
The Dolphins could use a linebacker to replace Kyle Van Noy. Collins fits the mold.
19. Washington Football Team: Jamin Davis, LB, Kentucky
The Football Team has a great front four but no linebackers. Davis could step in right away and thrive behind Chase Young, Jonathan Allen, Da’Ron Payne and Montez Sweat.
20. Chicago Bears: Greg Newsome II, CB, Northwestern
The Bears find their replacement for Kyle Fuller.
21. Indianapolis Colts: Teven Jenkins, OT, Oklahoma State
Jenkins played right tackle in college but I think he could move over to the left side in the NFL and serve as an Anthony Castonzo replacement.
22. Tennessee Titans: Jaelan Phillips, EDGE, Miami (FL)
Harold Landry’s contract expires after 2021. If the Titans aren’t planning on re-signing him, they could draft his future replacement in Phillips.
23. New York Jets: Azeez Ojulari, EDGE, Georgia
The Jets want to add another edge rusher. Ojulari would provide much-needed help to Quinnen Williams and Carl Lawson.
24. Pittsburgh Steelers: Najee Harris, RB, Alabama
The offensive line is in dire need of a rebuild but the Steelers appear to be set on taking Harris, a player I’ve compared to Le’Veon Bell.
25. Jacksonville Jaguars: Jayson Oweh, EDGE, Penn State
Josh Allen needs help rushing the passer. It’s possible K’Lavon Chaisson develops, but Oweh would give Jacksonville another high-upside player on the edge.
26. Cleveland Browns: Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, LB/S, Notre Dame
JOK could be an upgrade over Sione Takitaki at Will linebacker or Ronnie Harrison at strong safety.
27. Baltimore Ravens: Gregory Rousseau, EDGE, Miami (FL)
The Ravens desperately need edge rushers after losing Matthew Judon and Yannick Ngakoue in the offseason. Rousseau could give them a needed boost.
28. New Orleans Saints: Elijah Moore, WR, Ole Miss
The Saints upgrade a lackluster receiver group behind Michael Thomas with the dynamic Moore.
29. Green Bay Packers: Rashod Bateman, WR, Minnesota
Cornerback or offensive tackle would be ideal here but I’m not convinced the value will be there for either position. It may not be there in a trade up, either. Bateman is a BPA pick that can help right away, while also providing insurance if Davante Adams leaves after 2021.
30. Buffalo Bills: Travis Etienne, RB, Clemson
Rumor has it the Bills are looking for a new starting running back. Since they already have two slower running backs in Zack Moss and Devin Singletary, I think their preference would be the explosive Etienne.
31. Baltimore Ravens: Trevon Moehrig, S, TCU
I would’ve gone with Terrace Marshall here, but concerns over his knee could cause him to drop. The Ravens have one of the worst safety tandems in the league, so Moehrig — one of the few good safeties in this draft class — makes a lot of sense.
32. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Joe Tryon, EDGE, Washington
The Buccaneers retained all 22 starters from last year’s Super Bowl-winning team. With no glaring needs, they could go in almost any direction with this pick. My best guess is they’ll draft a successor for 32-year-old upcoming free agent Jason Pierre-Paul.