HEIGHT: 6-4 / WEIGHT: 226 / COLLEGE: North Dakota State / CLASS: Redshirt Sophomore

2019 STATS (16 GAMES): 192/287, 66.9%, 2,786 passing yards, 9.7 YPA, 28 passing touchdowns, 0 interceptions, 180.6 passer rating; 166 attempts, 1,100 rushing yards, 6.5 YPC, 14 rushing touchdowns

CAREER STATS (18 GAMES): 208/318, 65.4%, 2,947 passing yards, 9.3 YPA, 30 touchdowns, 1 interception, 173.8 passer rating; 192 attempts, 1,325 rushing yards, 6.9 YPC, 18 rushing touchdowns

GAMES WATCHED (14): Butler, North Dakota, Delaware, Illinois State, Northern Iowa, South Dakota State, Youngstown State, Western Illinois, South Dakota, Nicholls, Illinois State (FCS quarterfinal), Montana State, James Madison (2019); Central Arkansas (2020)

40	BENCH	VERT	BROAD	3 CONE	20S	60S

ACCURACY/BALL PLACEMENT (17.5/25)

• Good quick-game accuracy
• Very good at throwing off play-action
• Throws a pretty deep ball at times
• Shows touch on intermediate and deep throws
• Subpar accuracy on the move — frequent low or behind misses/near-misses due to mechanical issues
• Struggles a little bit with accuracy in the intermediate range (11-19 yards)
• Leaves some deep passes short, allowing defenders to recover
• Ball placement is inconsistent, especially outside the numbers — too many passes force receivers to fall down, slow down, squat or break stride
• Puts too much heat on short passes at times
• Wasn’t pressured much, so ability to maintain accuracy under duress is somewhat of a question mark

ARM STRENGTH/VELOCITY (15/15)

• Has the arm strength to attack all levels of the field
• Zips the ball into tight windows downfield and from the far hash
• Makes deep throws look effortless
• Able to cover at least 65 yards of vertical distance
• Maintains velocity on the move
• Able to compensate with arm strength when feet aren’t set

MENTAL PROCESSING (15/20)

• Typically makes good pre-snap reads and knows where to go with the ball
• Good sense of timing and anticipation
• Able to make full-field reads
• Solid processing speed
• Takes good care of the ball and rarely throws interceptable passes
• Willing to throw the ball away and generally knows when to give up on a play
• Solid internal clock
• Knows when to find checkdown
• Relatively good eye discipline and flashes of manipulation
• Plays overly cautious — has hesitated to pull the trigger on wide-open targets that he’s looking directly at; reluctant to throw to semi-open receivers at times, too
• Can be slow to adjust off of incorrect pre-snap read
• Some instances of predetermining throws
• Misread leverage of second-level defenders on a few occasions

POCKET PRESENCE (11.25/15)

• Pretty good pocket awareness and mobility — makes subtle movements to extend plays from within the pocket and feels pressure well generally
• Fearless in the face of pressure
• Pass rush lowers his eyes at times, although he normally stays scanning for downfield targets
• Some instances of impatience in the pocket, quickness to run

THROWING MECHANICS (3.5/5)

• Smooth delivery with high release point
• Gets the ball out quickly
• Great footwork from under center
• Does well to reset feet and stay ready to throw when forced to move
• False step from shotgun throws off timing of passes at times
• Spins front foot when following through on throws occasionally, leading to sailed passes
• Doesn’t consistently get toes and hips aligned to target when throwing on the move
• Altered footwork in 2020 game is concerning

MOBILITY/OFF-SCRIPT PLAYMAKING (8.5/10)

• Athletic for his size (low 4.7 speed?)
• Very good runner — sets up blocks well, breaks a lot of tackles, makes defenders miss and uses speed to pick up big gains on the ground
• Elusive in the pocket
• Extends plays by running to throw
• Needs to do a better job of protecting himself as a runner — too willing to lower shoulder and invite contact

INTANGIBLES (9/10)

• One-year starter (17 career starts)
• Looked advanced beyond his years in terms of mental processing, pocket mobility and footwork in 2019 as a redshirt freshman
• Coaches rave about his football IQ and mental makeup
• Shows toughness in the pocket
• Will be just 20 years old when he’s drafted
• Level of competition concerns — didn’t play against much pro talent in the FCS; how will he handle the speed of the NFL game?

OVERALL GRADE: 79.75/100.00 — EARLY 2ND ROUND — Starter by Year 2; raw with star potential or complimentary starter

NFL COMPARISON: Steve McNair

SCHEME FIT: Has the arm talent to eventually become scheme-versatile, but may translate most readily into a west coast offense because of his excellence in the quick game, ability to throw with timing and struggles throwing on the move.

DRAFT PROJECTION: Top-10 pick

Trey Lance showed some advanced skills as a redshirt freshman first-year starter for North Dakota State in 2019. His pocket mobility, mental processing and throwing mechanics were all impressive, considering his inexperience. Additionally, he showcased a great physical skill set. With a cannon arm, respectable accuracy and plus mobility, Lance has the upside of a top-10 NFL quarterback.

I’m not sure if he’ll be ready to start from Day 1, but I think he could realistically be ready to play by the middle or later part of Year 1. To reach his NFL ceiling, Lance will need to improve his mechanics/accuracy and become a little more aggressive as a passer, while cutting down on some of the mental processing errors. With further game experience, film study, practice and coaching, all of his weaknesses should be improvable.