HEIGHT: 6-4 / WEIGHT: 226 / COLLEGE: North Dakota State / CLASS: Redshirt Sophomore
2019 STATS (16 GAMES): 192/287, 66.9%, 2,786 passing yards, 9.7 YPA, 28 passing touchdowns, 0 interceptions, 180.6 passer rating; 166 attempts, 1,100 rushing yards, 6.5 YPC, 14 rushing touchdowns
CAREER STATS (18 GAMES): 208/318, 65.4%, 2,947 passing yards, 9.3 YPA, 30 touchdowns, 1 interception, 173.8 passer rating; 192 attempts, 1,325 rushing yards, 6.9 YPC, 18 rushing touchdowns
GAMES WATCHED (14): Butler, North Dakota, Delaware, Illinois State, Northern Iowa, South Dakota State, Youngstown State, Western Illinois, South Dakota, Nicholls, Illinois State (FCS quarterfinal), Montana State, James Madison (2019); Central Arkansas (2020)
40 | BENCH | VERT | BROAD | 3 CONE | 20S | 60S |
ACCURACY/BALL PLACEMENT (17.5/25)
- Good quick-game accuracy
- Very good at throwing off play-action
- Throws a pretty deep ball at times
- Shows touch on intermediate and deep throws
- Subpar accuracy on the move — frequent low or behind misses/near-misses due to mechanical issues
- Struggles a little bit with accuracy in the intermediate range (11-19 yards)
- Leaves some deep passes short, allowing defenders to recover
- Ball placement is inconsistent, especially outside the numbers — too many passes force receivers to fall down, slow down, squat or break stride
- Puts too much heat on short passes at times
- Wasn’t pressured much, so ability to maintain accuracy under duress is somewhat of a question mark
ARM STRENGTH/VELOCITY (15/15)
- Has the arm strength to attack all levels of the field
- Zips the ball into tight windows downfield and from the far hash
- Makes deep throws look effortless
- Able to cover at least 65 yards of vertical distance
- Maintains velocity on the move
- Able to compensate with arm strength when feet aren’t set
MENTAL PROCESSING (15/20)
- Typically makes good pre-snap reads and knows where to go with the ball
- Good sense of timing and anticipation
- Able to make full-field reads
- Solid processing speed
- Takes good care of the ball and rarely throws interceptable passes
- Willing to throw the ball away and generally knows when to give up on a play
- Solid internal clock
- Knows when to find checkdown
- Relatively good eye discipline and flashes of manipulation
- Plays overly cautious — has hesitated to pull the trigger on wide-open targets that he’s looking directly at; reluctant to throw to semi-open receivers at times, too
- Can be slow to adjust off of incorrect pre-snap read
- Some instances of predetermining throws
- Misread leverage of second-level defenders on a few occasions
POCKET PRESENCE (11.25/15)
- Pretty good pocket awareness and mobility — makes subtle movements to extend plays from within the pocket and feels pressure well generally
- Fearless in the face of pressure
- Pass rush lowers his eyes at times, although he normally stays scanning for downfield targets
- Some instances of impatience in the pocket, quickness to run
THROWING MECHANICS (3.5/5)
- Smooth delivery with high release point
- Gets the ball out quickly
- Great footwork from under center
- Does well to reset feet and stay ready to throw when forced to move
- False step from shotgun throws off timing of passes at times
- Spins front foot when following through on throws occasionally, leading to sailed passes
- Doesn’t consistently get toes and hips aligned to target when throwing on the move
- Altered footwork in 2020 game is concerning
MOBILITY/OFF-SCRIPT PLAYMAKING (8.5/10)
- Athletic for his size (low 4.7 speed?)
- Very good runner — sets up blocks well, breaks a lot of tackles, makes defenders miss and uses speed to pick up big gains on the ground
- Elusive in the pocket
- Extends plays by running to throw
- Needs to do a better job of protecting himself as a runner — too willing to lower shoulder and invite contact
INTANGIBLES (9/10)
- One-year starter (17 career starts)
- Looked advanced beyond his years in terms of mental processing, pocket mobility and footwork in 2019 as a redshirt freshman
- Coaches rave about his football IQ and mental makeup
- Shows toughness in the pocket
- Will be just 20 years old when he’s drafted
- Level of competition concerns — didn’t play against much pro talent in the FCS; how will he handle the speed of the NFL game?
OVERALL GRADE: 79.75/100.00 — EARLY 2ND ROUND — Starter by Year 2; raw with star potential or complimentary starter
NFL COMPARISON: Steve McNair
SCHEME FIT: Has the arm talent to eventually become scheme-versatile, but may translate most readily into a west coast offense because of his excellence in the quick game, ability to throw with timing and struggles throwing on the move.
DRAFT PROJECTION: Top-10 pick
Trey Lance showed some advanced skills as a redshirt freshman first-year starter for North Dakota State in 2019. His pocket mobility, mental processing and throwing mechanics were all impressive, considering his inexperience. Additionally, he showcased a great physical skill set. With a cannon arm, respectable accuracy and plus mobility, Lance has the upside of a top-10 NFL quarterback.
I’m not sure if he’ll be ready to start from Day 1, but I think he could realistically be ready to play by the middle or later part of Year 1. To reach his NFL ceiling, Lance will need to improve his mechanics/accuracy and become a little more aggressive as a passer, while cutting down on some of the mental processing errors. With further game experience, film study, practice and coaching, all of his weaknesses should be improvable.